The Budapest housing market in 2026: slowing price growth, shifting demand

The Budapest housing market in 2026: slowing price growth, shifting demand

What the latest Housing Market Report from the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) says, and what it means for sellers and buyers

This is an English translation of the Hungarian original; figures and sources are unchanged from it. The Hungarian version is authoritative.

Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) publishes its Housing Market Report, one of the most thorough reviews of the domestic real estate market. The latest edition came out on 20 May 2026: 2025 brought extraordinary price growth, but in 2026 the pace of price increases may slow in Budapest, while the pool of buyers and the supply side both shift.

1. Prices: a slowdown in the capital after a record year

Nationally, house prices rose by 23.5% in nominal terms and 19.0% in real terms in 2025. According to the MNB, this is the largest real house-price increase in the past 25 years.

In Budapest, annual nominal price growth eased from 28.2% in Q3 2025 to 26.0% in Q4 2025.

The central bank's forecast suggests the slowdown may continue:

The MNB adds that the risk of deviating from this forecast is greater on the upside than on the downside.

According to the central bank's calculations, house prices nationally exceeded the level justified by economic fundamentals by 22.5% at the end of 2025, an increase of 8.8 percentage points over one year.

In short: Budapest prices are still rising, at a slower pace than last year. As overvaluation grows, buyers may turn more price-sensitive.

2. Demand: more first-time buyers, fewer investors

The Otthon Start programme, launched in September 2025, has rewritten who buys.

• In Budapest, in Q1 2026, first-time buyers purchased 40% of homes sold; a year earlier the share was 25%.
• Investors in the capital have become net sellers: more sold than bought.
• By March 2026, around 33,200 Otthon Start loan agreements had been signed, worth close to HUF 1,161 billion, with an average loan amount of HUF 35 million.
• The share of subsidised loans within all housing loans rose from 23% to 81% (Q1 2026).
• About 90% of purchases financed under the programme were for existing (previously occupied) homes.
• The share of home purchases financed with a loan rose above 60%, compared with 36% previously.

The MNB estimates that around 152,000 home sales took place between private individuals nationally in 2025 (+3%), but in Q1 2026 the number of transactions was 18% lower than in the same period of the previous year.

In short: a growing share of Budapest buyers are buying their first home, and most of them pay with a subsidised bank loan.

3. Own funds: a rising entry threshold

According to the central bank's calculations, buying a minimal home in Budapest required at least HUF 7.9 million in own funds at the end of 2025, HUF 1.6 million more than a year earlier. (Outside Budapest, this amount was HUF 3.14 million.)

4. Supply: an expanding new-build market

• In Budapest, in Q1 2026, projects under development and for sale comprised 22,000 homes, a 46% annual increase and the highest level in the past ten years.
• The stock of unsold new homes rose to 9,490 by March 2026 (+63% year-on-year), a historic high.
• The average price per square metre of new homes in Budapest at the end of Q1 2026 was HUF 1.85 million, 10% higher than a year earlier.
• The share of new homes meeting the Otthon Start price conditions fell from 31% to 14% of supply.
• Nationally, about 12,000 new homes received occupancy permits in 2025, while the number of building permits issued rose by 37%; for 2026, the MNB expects around 15,700 homes to be completed.

In short: new-build supply is expanding, but much of it costs more than buyers using subsidised loans will pay. They keep searching among existing homes.

What does this mean for sellers?

The following are the author's own assessments based on MNB data.

1. Precise pricing matters more than it did last year. With price growth slowing, you will advertise an overpriced home for months, and buyers read the age of the listing as an invitation to negotiate.
2. Most buyers borrow to buy. Their bank sends a valuer to the property, and if your asking price differs from the value that valuer puts on it, the buyer does not get the loan.
3. Buyers using subsidised loans are looking for existing homes. If your home fits inside their price cap, that is the segment where you will find the most interested viewers.
4. The expansion of new-build supply creates competition in the higher price segment. Here the photos, the video and the state of the rooms decide whether a buyer books a viewing at all.

What does this mean for buyers?

1. Work out your own funds before you start looking. The entry threshold in the capital has risen over the past year.
2. Clarify the conditions of subsidised loans with your bank at the start of your search: they set which homes you can consider.
3. New-build supply gives you more choice too. Compare prices and conditions side by side before you decide.

Source

Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary): Housing Market Report, May 2026. Published: 20 May 2026.

• Report page: https://www.mnb.hu/kiadvanyok/jelentesek/lakaspiaci-jelentes/lakaspiaci-jelentes-2026-majus
• MNB press release: https://www.mnb.hu/sajtoszoba/hirek/2026-evi-hirek/2025-ben-erdemi-aremelkedes-es-a-kinalat-kibontakozo-bovulese-jellemezte-a-lakaspiacot-megjelent-a-jegybank-legfrissebb-lakaspiaci-jelentese

The figures in this article are taken from the report referenced above (in Hungarian). The interpretations reflect the author's own opinion and do not constitute investment or financial advice. The value of a specific property can only be determined through an individual assessment.

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